Environmental regulation and corporate tax avoidance-Evidence from China.

In this study, we used a difference-in-difference (DID) approach to analyze the effect of environmental regulation on corporate tax avoidance behavior based on China's carbon emissions trading pilot policy of 2013. Our findings were as follows: (1) Environmental regulation has led companies to adopt further tax evasion behaviors. Furthermore, the core conclusion was confirmed after a series of robust and endogenous tests, such as parallel trends and PSM-DID (propensity score matching-difference-in-difference). (2) Environmental regulations increase tax avoidance activities by reducing corporate cash flows. (3) The influence of environmental regulation on firm tax evasion is highly pronounced among non-state-owned enterprises, big-scale enterprises, and enterprises with a high degree of industry competition.

Front-of-Pack Labeling in Chile: Effects on Employment, Real Wages, and Firms' Profits after Three Years of Its Implementation.

This study evaluates the impact of Chile's innovative law on Food Labeling and Advertising, enacted in June 2016, on employment and real wages and profit margins for the food and beverage manufacturing sectors in the 2016-2019 period, using unique company-specific monthly data from Chile's tax collection agency (measuring aggregate employment, real wages, average size of firms, and gross profit margins of the food and beverage manufacturing sector). Interrupted-time series analyses (ITSA) on administrative data from tax-paying firms was used and compared to synthetic control groups of sectors not affected by the regulations. ITSA results show no effect on aggregate employment nor on the average size of the firms, while they show negligible effects on real wages and gross margin of profits (as proportion of total sales), after the first two stages of the implementation (36 months), despite significant decreases in consumption in certain categories (sugar-sweetened beverages, breakfast cereals, etc.). Despite the large declines found in purchases of unhealthy foods, employment did not change and impacts on other economic outcomes were small. Though Chile's law, is peculiar there is no reason to believe that if similar regulations were adopted elsewhere, they would have different results.

Linking a sugar-sweetened beverage tax with fruit and vegetable subsidies: A simulation analysis of the impact on the poor.

BACKGROUND: US individuals, particularly from low-income subpopulations, have very poor diet quality. Policies encouraging shifts from consuming unhealthy food towards healthy food consumption are needed. OBJECTIVES: We simulate the differential impacts of a national sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) tax and combinations of SSB taxes with fruit and vegetable (FV) subsidies targeted to low-income households on SSB and FV purchases of lower and higher SSB purchasers. METHODS: We considered a 1-cent-per-ounce SSB tax and 2 FV subsidy rates of 30% and 50% and used longitudinal grocery purchase data for 79,044 urban/semiurban US households from 2010-2014 Nielsen Homescan data. We used demand elasticities for lower and higher SSB purchasers, estimated via longitudinal quantile regression, to simulate policies' differential effects. RESULTS: Higher-SSB-purchasing households made larger reductions (per adult equivalent) in SSB purchases than lower SSB purchasers due to the tax (e.g., 4.4 oz/day at SSB purchase percentile 90 compared with 0.5 oz/day at percentile 25; P < 0.05). Our analyses by household income indicated low-income households would make larger reductions than higher-income households at all SSB purchase levels. Targeted FV subsidies induced similar, but nutritionally insignificant, increases in FV purchases of low-income households, regardless of their SSB purchase levels. Subsidies, however, were effective in mitigating the tax burdens. All low-income households experienced a net financial gain when the tax was combined with a 50% FV subsidy, but net gains were smaller among higher SSB purchasers. Further, low-income households with children gained smaller net financial benefits than households without children and incurred net financial losses under a 30% subsidy rate. CONCLUSIONS: SSB taxes can effectively reduce SSB consumption. FV subsidies would increase FV purchases, but nutritionally meaningful increases are limited due to low purchase levels before policy implementation. Expanding taxes beyond SSBs, providing larger FV subsidies, or offering subsidies beyond FVs, particularly for low-income households with children, may be more effective.

Evaluation of Changes in Grams of Sugar Sold After the Implementation of the Seattle Sweetened Beverage Tax.

Importance: Adults and children routinely exceed recommended intake amounts of added sugars established by dietary guidelines. Taxes are used as a policy tool to reduce demand for sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) given consumption-related adverse health outcomes but may induce substitution to other sources of added sugars. Objective: To examine the extent to which changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages may be offset by changes in grams of sugar sold from untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar after the implementation of the Seattle, Washington, Sweetened Beverage Tax (SBT) on January 1, 2018. Design, Setting, and Participants: This study used difference-in-differences analyses to examine changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed and untaxed products in Seattle compared with Portland, Oregon, at year 1 and year 2 post tax. This study used Nielsen scanner data from supermarkets and mass merchandise as well as grocery, drug, convenience, and dollar stores on unit sales and measurements for beverage and food product universal product codes (UPCs) for each site for the pretax period (January 8-December 30, 2017) and the corresponding weeks in year 1 post tax (2018) and in year 2 post tax (2019). Nutritional analyses assessed grams of sugar for each UPC. The analytical balanced sample included 1326 taxed beverage UPCs, 239 untaxed beverage UPCs, 2054 sweets UPCs, and 81 stand-alone sugar UPCs. Statistical analysis was performed from January to August 2021. Exposures: Implementation of the Seattle SBT. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages, untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar. Results: At both year 1 and year 2 post tax in Seattle compared with Portland, grams of sugar sold from taxed beverages decreased 23% (year 2 posttax ratio of incidence rate ratios [RIRR] = 0.77; 95% CI, 0.73-0.80). Sugar sold from untaxed beverages increased at year 1 post tax by 4% (RIRR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.00-1.07) with no change at year 2 post tax. Sugar sold from sweets increased by 4% at both year 1 and year 2 post tax (year 2 posttax RIRR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.03-1.06). There were no changes in stand-alone sugar sold. Conclusions and Relevance: This study using difference-in-differences analysis found a net 19% reduction in grams of sugar sold from taxed SSBs at year 2 post tax after accounting for changes in sugar sold from untaxed beverages, sweets, and stand-alone sugar. These results suggest that SSB taxes may effectively yield permanent reductions in added sugars sold from SSBs in food stores.

Welfare states as lifecycle redistribution machines: Decomposing the roles of age and socio-economic status shows that European tax-and-benefit systems primarily redistribute across age groups.

Social scientists identify two core functions of modern welfare states as redistribution across (a) socio-economic status groups (Robin Hood) and (b) 'the lifecycle' (the piggy bank). But what is the relative importance of these functions? The answer has been elusive, as the piggy bank is metaphorical. The intra-personal time-travel of resources it implies is based on non-quid-pro-quo transfers. In practice, 'lifecycle redistribution' must operate through inter-age-group resource reallocation in cross-section. Since at any time different birth cohorts live together, 'resource-productive' working-aged people are taxed to finance consumption of 'resource-dependent' younger and older people. In a novel decomposition analysis, we study the joint distribution of socio-economic status, age, and respectively (a) all cash and in-kind transfers ('benefits'), (b) financing contributions ('taxes'), and (c) resulting 'net benefits,' on a sample of over 400,000 Europeans from 22 EU countries. European welfare states, often maligned as ineffective Robin Hood vehicles riddled with Matthew effects, are better characterized as inter-age redistribution machines performing a more important second task rather well: lifecycle consumption smoothing. Social policies serve multiple goals in Europe, but empirically they are neither primarily nor solely responsible for poverty relief and inequality reduction.

Association of a Sweetened Beverage Tax With Purchases of Beverages and High-Sugar Foods at Independent Stores in Philadelphia.

Importance: The relationship between a sweetened beverage tax and changes in the prices and purchases of beverages and high-sugar food is understudied in the long term and in small independent food retail stores where sugar-sweetened beverages are among the most commonly purchased items. Objective: To examine whether a 1.5 cent-per-fluid-ounce excise tax on sugar- and artificially sweetened beverages Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, was associated with sustained changes in beverage prices and purchases, as well as calories purchased from beverages and high-sugar foods, over 2 years at small independent stores. Design, Setting, and Participants: This cross-sectional study used a difference-in-differences approach to compare changes in beverage prices and purchases of beverages and high-sugar foods (candy, sweet snacks) at independent stores in Philadelphia and Baltimore, Maryland (a nontaxed control) before and 2 years after tax implementation, which occurred on January 1, 2017. Price comparisons were also made to independent stores in Philadelphia's neighboring counties. Main Outcomes and Measures: Changes in mean price (measured in cents per fluid ounce) of taxed and nontaxed beverages, mean fluid ounces purchased of taxed and nontaxed beverages, and mean total calories purchased from beverages and high-sugar foods. Results: Compared with Baltimore independent stores, taxed beverage prices in Philadelphia increased 2.06 cents per fluid ounce (95% CI, 1.75 to 2.38 cents per fluid ounce; P < .001), with 137% of the tax passed through to prices 2 years after tax implementation, while nontaxed beverage prices had no statistically significant change. A total of 116 independent stores and 4738 customer purchases (1950 [41.2%] women; 4351 [91.8%] age 18 years or older; 1006 [21.2%] White customers, 3185 [67.2%] Black customers) at independent stores were assessed for price and purchase comparisons. Purchases of taxed beverages declined by 6.1 fl oz (95% CI, -9.9 to -2.4 fl oz; P < .001), corresponding to a 42% decline in Philadelphia compared with Baltimore; there were no significant changes in purchases of nontaxed beverages. Although there was no significant moderation by neighborhood income or customer education level, exploratory stratified analyses revealed that declines in taxed beverage purchases were larger among customers shopping in low-income neighborhoods (-7.1 fl oz; 95% CI, -13.0 to -1.1 fl oz; P = .001) and individuals with lower education levels (-6.9 fl oz; 95% CI, -12.5 to -1.3 fl oz; P = .001). Conclusions and Relevance: This cross-sectional study found that a tax on sweetened beverages was associated with increases in price and decreases in purchasing. Beverage excise taxes may be an effective policy to sustainably decrease purchases of sweetened drinks and calories from sugar in independent stores, with large reductions in lower-income areas and among customers with lower levels of education.

Taxed and untaxed beverage intake by South African young adults after a national sugar-sweetened beverage tax: A before-and-after study.

BACKGROUND: In an effort to prevent and reduce the prevalence rate of people with obesity and diabetes, South Africa implemented a sugar-content-based tax called the Health Promotion Levy in April 2018, one of the first sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes to be based on each gram of sugar (beyond 4 g/100 ml). This before-and-after study estimated changes in taxed and untaxed beverage intake 1 year after the tax, examining separately, to our knowledge for the first time, the role of reformulation distinct from behavioral changes in SSB intake. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We collected single-day 24-hour dietary recalls from repeat cross-sectional surveys of adults aged 18-39 years in Langa, South Africa. Participants were recruited in February-March 2018 (pre-tax, n = 2,459) and February-March 2019 (post-tax, n = 2,489) using door-to-door sampling. We developed time-specific food composition tables (FCTs) for South African beverages before and after the tax, linked with the diet recalls. By linking pre-tax FCTs only to dietary intake data collected in the pre-tax and post-tax periods, we calculated changes in beverage intake due to behavioral change, assuming no reformulation. Next, we repeated the analysis using an updated FCT in the post-tax period to capture the marginal effect of reformulation. We estimated beverage intake using a 2-part model that takes into consideration the biases in using ordinary least squares or other continuous variable approaches with many individuals with zero intake. First, a probit model was used to estimate the probability of consuming the specific beverage category. Then, conditional on a positive outcome, a generalized linear model with a log-link was used to estimate the continuous amount of beverage consumed. Among taxed beverages, sugar intake decreased significantly (p < 0.0001) from 28.8 g/capita/day (95% CI 27.3-30.4) pre-tax to 19.8 (95% CI 18.5-21.1) post-tax. Energy intake decreased (p < 0.0001) from 121 kcal/capita/day (95% CI 114-127) pre-tax to 82 (95% CI 76-87) post-tax. Volume intake decreased (p < 0.0001) from 315 ml/capita/day (95% CI 297-332) pre-tax to 198 (95% CI 185-211) post-tax. Among untaxed beverages, sugar intake increased (p < 0.0001) by 5.3 g/capita/day (95% CI 3.7 to 6.9), and energy intake increased (p < 0.0001) by 29 kcal/capita/day (95% CI 19 to 39). Among total beverages, sugar intake decreased significantly (p = 0.004) by 3.7 (95% CI -6.2 to -1.2) g/capita/day. Behavioral change accounted for reductions of 24% in energy, 22% in sugar, and 23% in volume, while reformulation accounted for additional reductions of 8% in energy, 9% in sugar, and 14% in volume from taxed beverages. The key limitations of this study are an inability to make causal claims due to repeat cross-sectional data collection, and that the magnitude of reduction in taxed beverage intake may not be generalizable to higher income populations. CONCLUSIONS: Using a large sample of a high-consuming, low-income population, we found large reductions in taxed beverage intake, separating the components of behavioral change from reformulation. This reduction was partially compensated by an increase in sugar and energy from untaxed beverages. Because policies such as taxes can incentivize reformulation, our use of an up-to-date FCT that reflects a rapidly changing food supply is novel and important for evaluating policy effects on intake.

The effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on the prevalence of smoking in Africa.

BACKGROUND: Tobacco use continues to kill millions of people globally, making it one of the major causes of preventable deaths. Notwithstanding, there has been a very marginal fall in the prevalence of tobacco smoking in Africa. Since taxes (hence prices) are part of the main measures suggested to decrease the demand for tobacco products, this study investigates how tobacco taxation and pricing influence the prevalence of smoking in 24 African countries. METHODS: Using panel data on 24 African countries sourced from the World Health Organization (WHO) and the World Bank databases for the period 2010 to 2016, this study employs the system Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) estimator to investigate the effects of tobacco taxation and pricing on the prevalence of smoking. The system GMM estimator is used due its ability to deal with potential endogeneity of tobacco taxation and pricing: the likelihood that the prevalence of smoking can influence tobacco taxation and pricing which may lead to biased estimates. RESULTS: Tobacco taxation and pricing have negative significant effects on the prevalence of smoking among the selected countries after controlling for growth of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) per capita, urbanization, death rate and net inflows of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI). Specifically, a percentage increase in tobacco price is found to decrease the prevalence of smoking by between 0.11 to 0.14%, while a percentage increase in tobacco tax decreases the prevalence of smoking by between 0.25 to 0.36%, all at 1% level of significance. CONCLUSION: Since tobacco taxation and pricing are found to have negative significant effects on the prevalence of smoking, the implication is that, their use can be intensified by African policy makers towards achieving the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) recommended targets and hence decrease the prevalence of tobacco smoking in Africa. Doing so may therefore help in achieving the Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) 3.5 (prevention and treatment of substance abuse), thereby reducing the colossal number of smoking attributable deaths.

Exploring the main and moderating effects of individual-level characteristics on consumer responses to sugar taxes and front-of-pack nutrition labels in an experimental marketplace.

INTERVENTION: This study examined whether the impacts of sugar taxes and front-of-pack (FOP) nutrition labels differ across socio-demographic subgroups. RESEARCH QUESTION: What are the main and moderating effects of individual-level characteristics on the nutrient content of participants' purchases in response to varying taxation levels and FOP labels? METHODS: Data from an experimental marketplace were analyzed. A sample of 3584 Canadians aged 13 years and older received $5 to purchase an item from a selection of 20 beverages and 20 snack foods. Participants were shown products with one of five FOP labels and completed eight within-subject purchasing tasks with different tax conditions. Linear mixed models were used to estimate the main and moderating effects of 11 individual-level variables on the sugars, sodium, saturated fats, and calorie content of participants' purchases. RESULTS: Participants who were younger, male, and more frequent consumers of sugary drinks purchased products containing more sugars, sodium, saturated fats, and calories. Sex and age moderated the relationship between tax condition and sugars or calories purchased: female participants were more responsive than males to a tax that included fruit juice, and younger participants were more responsive to all sugar tax conditions than older participants. Reported thirst and education level also moderated the relationship between tax condition and calories purchased. No individual-level characteristics moderated the effects of FOP labels. CONCLUSION: A small proportion (7 of 176) of the moderating effects tested in this study were significant. Sugar taxes and FOP labelling policies may therefore produce similar effects across key socio-demographic groups.

RéSUMé: INTERVENTION: Dans cette étude, nous avons cherché à déterminer si les effets des taxes sur le sucre et de l'étiquetage nutritionnel sur le devant des emballages sont les mêmes dans différents sous-groupes sociodémographiques. QUESTION DE RECHERCHE: Quels sont les principaux effets et les effets modérateurs des caractéristiques individuelles sur le contenu nutritionnel des achats des participants quand le niveau des taxes et l'étiquetage sur le devant des emballages varient? MéTHODE: Nous avons analysé les données d'un marché expérimental. Nous avons offert à un échantillon de 3 584 Canadiens de 13 ans et plus 5 $ pour acheter un article parmi 20 boissons et 20 grignotines. Les participants se sont fait présenter des produits portant l'une de cinq étiquettes sur le devant de l'emballage et ont effectué huit tâches d'achat intra-sujet avec différentes modalités de taxation. Des modèles linéaires mixtes ont servi à estimer les principaux effets et les effets modérateurs de 11 variables individuelles sur la teneur en sucres, en sodium, en graisses saturées et en calories des achats des participants. RéSULTATS: Les jeunes, les participants de sexe masculin et les consommateurs fréquents de boissons sucrées ont acheté des produits contenant plus de sucres, de sodium, de graisses saturées et de calories. Le sexe et l'âge ont modéré la relation entre la modalité de taxation et les sucres ou les calories achetés : les filles et les femmes étaient plus sensibles que les garçons et les hommes à une taxe incluant les jus de fruits, et les jeunes étaient plus sensibles à toutes les modalités de taxation du sucre que les participants plus âgés. La soif et le niveau d'instruction autodéclarés ont aussi modéré la relation entre la modalité de taxation et les calories achetées. Aucune caractéristique individuelle n'a modéré les effets des étiquettes sur le devant des emballages. CONCLUSION: Seule une petite proportion (7 sur 176) des effets modérateurs testés dans l'étude était significative. Les politiques de taxation du sucre et d'étiquetage sur le devant des emballages pourraient donc produire des effets semblables dans plusieurs groupes sociodémographiques clés.

Pass-through of the Oakland, California, sugar-sweetened beverage tax in food stores two years post-implementation: A difference-in-differences study.

INTRODUCTION: Taxes on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSBs) have gained support as a policy response to adverse health effects associated with SSB consumption. On July 1, 2017, Oakland, California, implemented a one-cent/ounce tax on SSBs with ≥25 calories/12 fluid ounces. This study estimated the long-term impact of the tax on taxed and untaxed beverage prices. METHODS: Data on 5,830 taxed and 5,146 untaxed beverage prices were obtained from 99 stores in Oakland and 111 stores in Sacramento (comparison site), California, in late May-June 2017 and June 2019. Linear regression difference-in-differences models were computed with store and product fixed effects, with robust standard errors clustered on store, weighted based on volume sold by beverage sweetener status, type, and size. RESULTS: Taxed beverage prices increased by 0.73 cents/ounce (95% CI = 0.47,1.00) on average in supermarkets and grocery stores in Oakland relative to Sacramento and 0.74 cents/ounce (95% CI = 0.39,1.09) in pharmacies, but did not change in convenience stores (-0.09 cents/ounce, 95% CI = -0.56,0.39). Untaxed beverage prices overall increased by 0.40 cents/ounce (95% CI = 0.05,0.75) in pharmacies but did not change in other store types. Prices of taxed individual-size soda specifically increased in all store types, by 0.91-2.39 cents/ounce (p<0.05), as did prices of untaxed individual-size soda in convenience stores (0.79 cents/ounce, 95% CI = 0.01,1.56) and pharmacies (1.66 cents/ounce, 95% CI = 0.09,3.23). CONCLUSIONS: Two years following SSB tax implementation, there was partial tax pass-through with differences by store type and by beverage type and size within store type.

Taxation and tobacco plain packaging effect on Saudi smokers quitting intentions in Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia.

OBJECTIVES: The current research aims to study the impact of raising tobacco tax and implementation of plain packaging on male smokers' quitting intentions in Saudi Arabia. METHODS: The study adopts a quantitative approach where close-ended questionnaires are distributed among 1,015 male participants from different regions of Riyadh city, Saudi Arabia. Bivariate analysis and logistic regression analysis are conducted using SPSS software to analyze the collected primary data. RESULTS: The study found a significant association of taxation and plain packaging on the quitting intentions of smokers. On taxation, while a considerable number of participants (46.5%) stated that they would not quit smoking if the cigarette prices increased, participants who were planning to give up smoking said it would strengthen their intention (p less than 0.001). In addition, logistic regression was performed to identify the independent predictors of quitting intention. Participants who did not want to apply the concept of plain packaging to Saudi Arabia were more likely to have quitting intention (odds ratio: 2.30 [1.61-3.28]) in comparison to those who wanted to apply the concept. CONCLUSION: Although the current price of cigarette packs reported to be very high by the participants, imposing a new higher tax may motivate smokers who had plans to quit in the near future. Plain packaging seems to be an effective new strategy in addition to tobacco taxation in Saudi Arabia, yet, more time and further research are required to assess the effectiveness of the strategy.

The health and economic burden of smoking in 12 Latin American countries and the potential effect of increasing tobacco taxes: an economic modelling study.

BACKGROUND: Worldwide, smoking tobacco causes 7 million deaths annually, and this toll is expected to increase, especially in low-income and middle-income countries. In Latin America, smoking is a leading risk factor for death and disability, contributes to poverty, and imposes an economic burden on health systems. Despite being one of the most effective measures to reduce smoking, tobacco taxation is underused and cigarettes are more affordable in Latin America than in other regions. Our aim was to estimate the tobacco-attributable burden on mortality, disease incidence, quality of life lost, and medical costs in 12 Latin American countries, and the expected health and economic effects of increasing tobacco taxes. METHODS: In this modelling study, we developed a Markov probabilistic microsimulation economic model of the natural history, medical costs, and quality-of-life losses associated with the most common tobacco-related diseases in 12 countries in Latin America. Data inputs were obtained through a literature review, vital statistics, and hospital databases from each country: Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Costa Rica, Ecuador, Honduras, Mexico, Paraguay, Peru, and Uruguay. The main outcomes of the model are life-years, quality-adjusted life-years, disease events, hospitalisations, disease incidence, disease cost, and healthy years of life lost. We estimated direct medical costs for each tobacco-related disease included in the model using a common costing methodology for each country. The disease burden was estimated as the difference in disease events, deaths, and associated costs between the results predicted by the model for current smoking prevalence and a hypothetical cohort of people in each country who had never smoked. The model estimates the health and financial effects of a price increase of cigarettes through taxes, in terms of disease and health-care costs averted, and increased tax revenues. FINDINGS: In the 12 Latin American countries analysed, we estimated that smoking is responsible for approximately 345 000 (12%) of the total 2 860 921 adult deaths, 2·21 million disease events, 8·77 million healthy years of life lost, and $26·9 billion in direct medical costs annually. Health-care costs attributable to smoking were estimated to represent 6·9% of the health budgets of these countries, equivalent to 0·6% of their gross domestic product. Tax revenues from cigarette sales cover 36·0% of the estimated health expenditures caused by smoking. We estimated that a 50% increase in cigarette price through taxation would avert more than 300 000 deaths, 1·3 million disease events, gain 9 million healthy life-years, and save $26·7 billion in health-care costs in the next 10 years, with a total economic benefit of $43·7 billion. INTERPRETATION: Smoking represents a substantial health and economic burden in these 12 countries of Latin America. Tobacco tax increases could successfully avert deaths and disability, reduce health-care spending, and increase tax revenues, resulting in large net economic benefits. FUNDING: International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Canada.

The effects of an abrupt increase in taxes on candy and soda in Norway: an observational study of retail sales.

BACKGROUND: Fiscal policies are used to promote a healthier diet; however, there is still a call for real-world evaluations of taxes on unhealthy foods and beverages. We aimed to evaluate the effect of an abrupt increase, of respectively 80 and 40%, in the excising Norwegian taxes on candy and beverages on volume sales of candy and soda. We expected sales to fall. METHODS: We analyzed electronic point of sale data covering approximately 98% of volume sales of grocery stores in Norway. In two pre-registered models with weekly (log-)sales of taxed candy and soda from 3884 individual stores, we modeled the difference between the jump (discontinuity) in the trend around the time of the increase in taxes and the corresponding jump in the trend in a control season from the previous years (Model 1). In addition, we modeled the difference between the intervention and the control season in their changes in average sales (Model 2). RESULTS: Model 1 showed a 6.1% (one-sided 95% CI: not applicable (NA), 23.4, p-value = 0.26) increase and a - 3.9% (95% CI: NA, 4.9, p-value = 0.23) reduction in the differences in the jump in the trends, for candy and soda, respectively. The second model showed a relative decrease of - 4.9% (95% CI: NA, 1.0, p-value = 0.08) in the average sales of candy and an increase of 1.5% (95% CI: NA, 5.0, p-value = 0.24) in sales of soda. Supplementary analyses suggested that the results were sensitive to clustering on the time dimension. CONCLUSIONS: When using two different quasi-experimental designs to model changes in volume sales of taxed candy and soda, we were not able to detect reductions in sales that coincided with an increase in the taxes. Variation across time makes it difficult to detect potentially small changes in sales even when using an entire country's worth of sales data on the level of individual stores. We speculate that the tax increases were too modest to affect the prices to alter sales sufficiently.

The Direct Effect of Taxes and Transfers on Changes in the U.S. Income Distribution, 1967-2015.

Scholars have increasingly drawn attention to rising levels of income inequality in the United States. However, prior studies have provided an incomplete account of how changes to specific transfer programs have contributed to changes in income growth across the distribution. Our study decomposes the direct effects of tax and transfer programs on changes in the household income distribution from 1967 to 2015. We show that despite a rising Gini coefficient, lower-tail inequality (the ratio of the 50th to 10th percentile) declined in the United States during this period due to the rise of in-kind and tax-based transfers. Food assistance and refundable tax credits account for nearly all the income growth between 1967 and 2015 at the 5th percentile and roughly one-half the growth at the 10th percentile. Moreover, income gains near the bottom of the distribution are concentrated among households with children. Changes in the income distribution were far less progressive among households without children.

Impact of tobacco industry pricing and marketing strategy on brand choice, loyalty and cessation in global south countries: a systematic review.

OBJECTIVES: We undertook this review to assess the impact of pricing strategies on brand choice, loyalty and quitting behaviour in Global South countries. METHODS: We systematically retrieved articles from Medline, CENTRAL, ScienceDirect, Google Scholar from inception up to January 2020. Studies which reported tobacco industry's pricing strategies were eligible. We summarized the data as themes and codes using the principles of inductive qualitative thematic analysis within structured rational constructivist framework. RESULTS: In total, 13 studies met inclusion criteria were included. Major strategies adopted by tobacco industries to tackle the pricing and taxation changes were increased tax absorption, differential taxation based on price, cigarette length/size which ensures modest increase in the net price of cigarettes. This in turn influences the tobacco users in terms of brand loyalty and switching as they prefer to stay with factory-made cigarettes or shift to a cheaper alternative or illegal product rather than decreasing/quitting tobacco use. CONCLUSIONS: Absorption of excise tax and differential taxation are the common pricing strategies adopted by tobacco industries in Global South. These strategies together with external determinants impact the price-related tobacco control interventions.

Tobacco taxes and illicit cigarette trade in Colombia.

This paper estimates the short-term impact of a twofold increase of the tobacco excise tax on consumption of illicit cigarette trade in Colombia. Using data collected before and after the tax increase from a novel smoker survey (DEICS-Col), the impact is estimated as the change in the probability that a smoker has illicit cigarettes. The methodology follows a difference-in-differences strategy, measuring the year-to-year variation of the proportion of illicit cigarettes between smokers who report buying low-priced cigarettes (the highest treatment intensity) and those who bought high-priced cigarettes (lowest treatment intensity). Estimations of the impact show an average increase of 4-5 percentage points on the proportion of illicit cigarettes relative to an initial penetration of low-priced illicit cigarettes of nearly 5.1 %.

The Rise and Fall of Alcohol Excise Taxes in U.S. States, 1933-2018.

OBJECTIVE: Higher alcohol taxation is protective against alcohol-related morbidity and mortality. All states have specific (volume-based) excise taxes for alcohol that decrease if not adjusted for inflation. These taxes have diminished substantially in real terms since their inception after National Prohibition in the United States. The purpose of this study was to examine trends in the magnitude and frequency of changes in state specific excise taxes to document their erosion. METHOD: Alcohol excise tax data were examined for all 50 states from 1933 to 2018. Tax data were obtained from the Alcohol Policy Information System, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, Wine Institute, and HeinOnline. Linear and logistic regression analyses were conducted for beer, wine, and distilled spirits taxes to examine trends in the frequency and inflation-adjusted magnitude of changes in taxes from the year of alcohol tax inception. RESULTS: From 1933 until 1970, beer, wine, and distilled spirits tax rates increased in value compared with inception rates, but by 2018 alcohol taxes had declined 66%, 71%, and 70%, respectively, compared with their inception values. The erosion of taxes after 1970 was driven primarily by declines in the magnitude of tax increases through the 1970s and 1980s, followed by declines in the frequency of tax increases in subsequent decades. CONCLUSIONS: The value of alcohol excise taxes has declined since 1970 from both insufficient tax increases and later infrequent tax increases. Laws that index rates to inflation could sustain the public health benefit of reduced morbidity and mortality resulting from higher alcohol tax rates.

Is the public sweet on sugary beverages? Social desirability bias and sweetened beverage taxes.

Social desirability bias has been documented in self-reported diet as well as in voting behavior, but not in regards to sweetened beverage consumption or sweetened beverage taxes. We find evidence that respondents in a mixed-mode opinion survey exhibit social desirability bias in both reported sweetened beverage consumption and beliefs about the health and economic benefits of sweetened beverage taxes. We do so in a study of 1704 adults residing in Seattle, Minneapolis, and the D.C. metro area. Phone respondents in our survey under-report sweetened beverage consumption by 0.63 beverages per week relative to web respondents (average web respondent consumption is 3.55 beverages per week). They also over-report their beliefs about the positive health and economic impacts of sweetened beverage taxes by 0.54 points in an 18-point index (average web respondent index score is 2.79). These differences are measured after we control for selection into survey mode by using matching methods, and we interpret them as occurring due to social desirability bias. In contrast to these findings, there is no modal difference in respondents' stated approval of sweetened beverage taxes, and so we conclude that this question is not subject to social desirability bias.

Global disparities in health-systems financing: A cross-national analysis of the impact of tariff reductions and state capacity on public health expenditure in 65 low- and middle-income countries, 1996-2015.

Understanding what contributes to cross-national differences in public health spending among low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) can help identify how policy-makers can reduce global disparities. Yet, research on this topic has so far overlooked the potential influence of one of the most strongly recommended economic reforms during the post-war era: reducing international trade taxes, 'tariffs'. Tariffs are an important source of tax revenue for some LMICs. Tariff declines can impact on government finances, and these changes may constrain public health expenditure where states lack the capacity to tax non-trade activities. We examined the association between tariff changes and public health spending in 65 LMICs, 1996-2015. We identify substantial variation in this association according to one indicator of state capacity, a country's score on the World Governance Indicators government effectiveness (GE) index. For example, tariff declines corresponded to reduced public health expenditures in countries with low GE scores. Our results suggest that tariff changes and domestic taxation capacities have an under-recognised impact on public health expenditure and may contribute to global health spending disparities.